Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
Capitalization remains healthy, to be strengthened further after the listing of the holding entity
Driven by a cumulative capital infusion of Rs 1,950 crore by Mr. Sachin Bansal through NTL, the capitalization of Navi group has improved significantly. NFL’s standalone networth, which stood at Rs 80 crore as on March 31, 2019, increased to Rs 952 crore as of March 31, 2020, as a result of initial round of capital infusion. Thereafter, as the company received two more tranches of capital, NFL’s reported networth further increased to Rs 2,270 crore as on March 31, 2023. Correspondingly, the company’s adjusted gearing has also remained comfortable. On March 31, 2023, this metric stood at 3.2 times whereas excluding the interest free debt from NTPL, adjusted gearing was even lower at 2.4 times. Of the total capital NFL has received since October 2019, Rs 436 crore has been down-streamed to CIFCPL till March 2023. This has resulted in a stronger capital position for CIFCPL. Adjusted gearing (including direct assignment) stood at 6.3 times as of March 2023 as compared to 7.1 times, as of March 31, 2019.
Mr. Bansal holds about 98% in NTL, which in turn holds 99.6% stake in Navi Group. NTL’s networth stood at Rs 3642.6 crore as of March 31, 2023 – and most of it has been infused into Navi Group as a combination of debt and equity. As on March 31, 2023, Rs 300 crore (as compared to Rs 650 crore on September 30, 2021) was parked in NFL as debt from NTL which has been deployed in treasury investments by the former.
In line with CRISIL Ratings’ earlier expectations, this line of debt is being replaced by external funding on NFL’s balance sheet. CRISIL Ratings also takes note of NTPL’s plans to go for public issue in the near to medium term which would strengthen the group’s capital position and the timing and size of the issue will be a monitorable. Presently, the company is estimated to raise Rs 2,680 – 3,350 crores as part of the public issue, as fresh issuance and the same has been factored into the rating. Even after factoring in the existing and potential allocation of capital within the group, a substantial amount of liquidity will be maintained within the NTL group at all points in time and, it will be fungible across the group depending upon entity specific requirements.
In consideration of NTL’s demonstrated track record of allocating and extending capital support, CRISIL Ratings expects Navi group’s consolidated capital position to remain strong in relation to its scale and nature of business.
Stabilizing asset quality with evolution in risk management systems
Asset quality for both NFL and CIFCPL has improved over the last 2-4 quarters, overcoming the aftereffects of the pandemic. The risk management systems of the group have been evolving with scale – primarily in the form of increasing effectiveness of the Navi app and the underwriting, monitoring digital model used by the group. With expanding data base, the ML driven model used by NFL is becoming more stringent and accurate. For CIFCPL – the increased efforts for ground level monitoring and constant borrower connect have proven to be beneficial. For the digital personal loan portfolio which has grown at a phenomenal rate since its commencement, 90+ dpd has improved significantly from its peak level of 15.1% in July 2021 to 1.46% as of March 2023. While some of this improvement is a factor of exponential AUM growth, majority of the traction is accredited to right selection of borrowers through the ML model, stringent approval rates and tight monitoring and collections systems of NFL. New originations have also been performing well – evidenced by constant improvement 30 PAR (static) across loan tenure buckets. Stressed assets for NFL, after including cumulative write offs and restructured portfolio, were also relatively low at sub 3%. For the housing loan book, also housed in NFL, growth has been stable with slippages remaining negligible.
CIFCPL, which is the microfinance arm of Navi group, has also exhibited resilience during the pandemic with total stressed assets remaining sub 3%. 30+ dpd had peaked at 8.5% in June 2021 post which the company’s conscious collection efforts, growth in AUM and revival in macro factors resulted in 30+ dpd declining to 0.44% by end of March 2023. Hereto, after considering write offs and restructured portfolio, stressed assets remained sub 3% as on date. New microfinance disbursals have been exhibiting a monthly collection efficiency of >98% so far.
Considering the growth plans for the non-microfinance portfolio (digital personal loans and home loans), the group’s ability to maintain asset quality and profitability alongside scale and seasoning will remain a key rating sensitivity factor. Over the course of growth, the risk management systems at CIFCPL and NFL are expected to evolve resulting in increased operational efficiency. While microfinance would remain a manpower intensive vertical, the company would explore its integration of ground level activities to the group’s centralized MIS by leveraging digital interphase. On the other hand, NFL has been operating with a full-fledged digital underwriting engine and would continue to strengthen the same. For the housing loan book, which is being managed through a hybrid underwriting model (physical and digital), the ability of the group to achieve optimal efficiency and adequate risk management will be key.
Improving profitability
The early traction in profitability Navi group, which commenced after being acquired by NTL, was disrupted by the outbreak of the pandemic. Apart from surge in credit costs for both entities, other reasons like sharp rise in marketing expenses for NFL and high operating expenses for CIFCPL, led to a moderation in consolidated earnings for fiscal 2022. However, there has been marked improvement during fiscal 2023.
For NFL, which reported a net loss for fiscal 2022 due to high marketing expenditure for launch of its housing loan book and branding costs, earnings have improved significantly in fiscal 2023 driven by a decline in marketing costs in general, ability to charge a higher premium for loans from repeat customers, and correction in credit costs. For the full year ended March 31, 2023, NFL reported a PAT of Rs 172 crore which translates to a RoMA of 2.5%.
Similarly, for CIFCPL, profitability has been historically constrained by high operating expenses. While this metric has improved from 9% in fiscal 2019 to ~6% in fiscal 2022, further scope of improvement remains. For fiscal 2023, CIFCPL reported a PAT of Rs 148 crore (Rs 52 crore for fiscal 2022) with a RoMA of 3.9% (2.3% for fiscal 2022).
The company has expanded its branch base extensively in the last few quarters and most of those are yet to break even. As branches gain more vintage, benefits of economies of scale are expected to result in an improvement in operating expenses. This, in addition to removal of interest rate cap for MFIs under the revised framework, is expected to benefit CIFCPL’s long term profitability.
Improving resource profile
Ever since its association with NTPL, Navi group’s resource profile has been improving. The lender base of the group has expanded with more banks coming on-board and cost of borrowing has also remained competitive on fresh borrowings post equity infusion in October 2019.
Funding base of NFL was skewed towards the debt from NTPL until September 2021 however, its share has now declined in favour of increasing term funding and capital market issuances. From Rs 772 crore extended in January 2020, the quantum of debt from the parent – NTPL – increased to Rs 2,323 crore in May 2020. However, it was eventually reduced to Rs 1,824 crore as of June 2020, and further to Rs 300 crore by March 31, 2023. This intra group debt is expected to be maintained at current levels in the long term – which would impart further diversity to the company’s borrowing profile. During fiscal 2023, NFL has raised over Rs 5000 crore as incremental funding. As a philosophy, the management intends to maintain at least 15% of external debt of Navi group as on-tap liquidity for the group – at all points in time.
Of CIFCPL’s lender base of close to 50 as on March 31, 2023 - which comprises Banks, NBFCs and DFIs, the share of banks and FIs in the total borrowing mix had increased to over 80% from 24%, over the last 8-12 quarters. The improvement in resource profile can also be evidenced in the declining blended cost of funds (i.e., existing & fresh borrowings), from >14% pre – 2018 to approximately 10.2% levels now. During fiscal 2023, the company has raised incremental sanctions to the extent of Rs. 2441 crore from banks, DFIs and other sources which would support its overall resource profile and liquidity position. As the resource profile diversifies further with an increasing share of bank funding in the total debt base, the cost of borrowing may decline further.
Weaknesses:
Microfinance portfolio quality remains susceptible to local socio-political issues and other regulatory and macro factors
Despite gradual diversification in regional presence over the years, 64% of the company’s AUM is concentrated in three states – Karnataka (29%), Bihar (18%) and Uttar Pradesh (18%). This increases the susceptibility of asset quality to regional socio-political issues which are an inherent risk to the microfinance industry. Apart from milestone events like Andhra Pradesh crisis in 2010, demonetization in 2016, and now Covid-19 outbreak; the sector has faced issues of varying intensity in several geographies. Promulgation of the ordinance on MFIs by the Government of Andhra Pradesh in 2010 demonstrated their vulnerability to regulatory and legislative risks. The ordinance triggered a chain of events that adversely affected the business models of MFIs by impairing their growth, asset quality, profitability, and solvency. Similarly, the sector witnessed high level of delinquencies post-demonetization and the subsequent socio-political events. Furthermore, CIFCPL caters to clients with un-profiled credit risk profiles and lack of access to formal credit. The income flow of these households could be volatile and dependent on the local economy. With the slowdown in economic activity since outbreak out of covid-19, there has been pressure on such borrowers’ cash flows at a household level thereby restricting their repayment capability.
Even for the target market for digital personal loans – that comprises the prime middle class, macro developments like mass lay-offs, loss of salary and alike factors would remain a risk. Apart from these, regulatory developments like the recent The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) circular on digital lending will also have a bearing on the digital personal loan book of the company and its impact would remain a monitorable over time.
Limited vintage in the non-microfinance portfolio
Driven by a sharp increase in monthly disbursements of digital personal loans, the digital personal loan portfolio has grown at a robust 409% rate over fiscal 2022 to reach Rs 2,504 crore as of March 31, 2022, and further to Rs 7,141 crore as of March 31, 2023. Considering the average tenure of this portfolio is about 24 months, majority of this book remains unseasoned. Housing loans, which are the second product offered by NFL, were launched in December 2020 and have grown at a comparable rate over fiscal 2022. The average tenure is about 20 years and therefore, this portfolio is also low on vintage. Considering the low seasoning and high growth trajectory anticipation for this book, even though the delinquencies from newer originations have been low, the group’s ability to maintain asset quality and profitability alongside scale will remain a key rating sensitivity factor. Over the medium to long term, the company’s ability to maintain above-average asset quality by tightening its ground level monitoring and risk management will also be essential.
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