Article of the month

Reading the energy meter

 

Excerpts from a panel discussion held during the webinar

 

On power demand

  • Powerdemandislikelytogrow5-6%perannumovernextcoupleofyears,drivenbyindustrialdemand
  • Growthinpeakpowerdemandislikelytopickuppace,reaching~300GWbyfiscal2028.
  • Resultantly,upcomingcapacities(including25GWofthermalpower)maynotbesufficienttomeetdemand.Also,storagetechnologiesmayneedtoaccelerate.

On coal supply

  • Supply challenges unlikely in fiscal 2024, given the increase in production.
  • Expect imported coal blending to go decline to 6% and lower, with improvement in domestic supply

Merchant sales and prices

  • Merchant prices have softened in the past 3-4 months owing to cooler temperatures in the north. Prices unlikely to peak during the rest of this fiscal.
  • Gap in peak power demand may drive merchant prices.

On discoms

  • Tariff hikes are important for the sustenance of the sector. The central government has taken various measures to improve discom health.
  • Discoms may float medium-term PPAs to overcome the vagaries of the spot market. This will be an opportunity for some of the open thermal capacities.